Awful Intent Update: Climax Finished

The first draft of the novel is essentially finished. I have two chapters left–one that confirms the resolution of the A story, and one that wraps things up in the B story. I am so excited to let this sit for a week or two, then come back to it with fresh eyes and get the second draft written. That draft will go out to my beta readers. And while they’re reading, I will be developing the idea of the next novel.

These last two weeks, I have been applying the techniques used by sports psychologists to enhance professional- and olympic-level sports performance to my writing sessions. I’ve noticed the difference. And it’s been very good. I’ll be describing what that is in a future post.

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  • Curse Update

    CurseV2FinalV1A number of weeks ago life happened at my day job. I had just started a rewrite of the final battle of CURSE, but life put that on hold. Life got back to normal a few days ago. And a few days ago I began to work on that final battle sequence again. So you’ll notice that delivery targets have changed on the books page. I’m moving under a good head of steam now, and unless life happens again, we should meet those dates 🙂 More than anyone else, I want to get this book into your hands.

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    Wolves in my backyard

    National Geographic ran an article in the March issue titled “Wolf Wars.” It has a great interactive map. You’ll want to read the whole article, but I want you to look at something.

    First, here’s a picture of a wolf in Yellowstone licking his or her chops over a recent elk kill.  Looks real friendly, doesn’t it. Here, poochie, poochie, poochie.

    A few facts. Wolves can grow up to six feet long (tip of nose to tip of tail) and three feet tall. They weigh on average about 80 pounds but can be as heavy as 150-190 pounds. Wolves can reach 40 mph when chasing, but the use their stamina more than speed. Regardless of how they catch you, their jaws are strong enough to crush bones. You want more facts? Go to this wiki article on canis lupis.  The point is that they are large, smart predators. At the top of the food chain. These aren’t little doggies. They’re killers. And they are mighty hard to socialize with humans (read the wiki article).

    Of course, it can be done. Not far away in Heber City, Utah lives Doug and Lynne Seus (yes, that’s the name–gotta love it!) who train wild animals for movies. The company is called Rocky Mountain Wasatch Wildlife. I know you’ve seen one of their animal “actors,” Bart the bear, in many movies. The Seuses also happen to train wolves. A friend of mine grew up in Heber with the daughter of Doug and Lynne. She visits from time to time. Last summer she went down and saw the wolves. My friend was told that she had to carry any children she might bring.

    Why?

    Because the children are food. That’s why. And when she went out there, the wolves were tracking those children every minute with their eyes. Freaked her out. In fact, another friend got so freaked she took her kid back to the main house and didn’t come out again. Folks, these are wolves that work with humans ALL THE TIME.

    I know the nature programs often make it seem like wolves are harmless, but they’re predators. Just like grizzlies, tigers, or crocodiles. Wolves are dangerous. A pack kills up to two elk a week. That’s a lot of eating. But they’re all up in Yellowstone, right?

    Um, no.

    Exhibit 1: Documented wolf packs, i.e. two or more wolves, in 1992 (click on image to see it full size)

    Exhibit 2: packs released in 1995

     

    Exhibit 3: wolf packs as of 2008 (2 years ago)

    Holy schnitzel!

    If you didn’t read it above, they’re estimating about 1,645 wolves in 217 packs. And that’s just the ones that have been officially documented. You know there are more out there that haven’t been seen. Look at the one all the way out by Casper, WY. Those bad boys can travel. In fact, the NG article says that wolves stake out a territory of about 200 to 500 square miles (a circle of that size has a radius of 8 to 13 miles). They travel on average (AVERAGE!) 60 miles from their pack when seeking a mate or new pack. Although one was recorded traveling 500 miles.

    Okay, so given the maps and sightings above, how is the John Brown family doing down in Laketown?

    Exhibit 4: I need a gun!

    The map below marks Laketown, UT with an A. I marked over that the packs shown in NG in red and others reported in pink. I also show orange rings 20 miles apart.  

    The “unofficial” sighting just inside the 80 mile ring was by my brother-in-law. The wolves were killing a bunch of his neighbor’s ewes he was taking care of. I didn’t say “eating” because they were killing far too many to eat. Wolves looked up at brother-in-law on four-wheeler. Assessed him. No whimpering, no cowering, no doggie wagging of tails. Just a frank assessment–human, danger or lunch? Said wolves sent a herd of the willies galloping up brother-in-law’s back. Freaked him out. He high-tailed it out of there and called the Feds who found that pack and killed them about fifteen miles away. But that sighting was before 2003. The sighting just outside the 100 mile mark was by some neighbors around 2007. The sighting down by Manila, UT was reported in a  news report by KSL news in 2008, just two years ago.

    Okay, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that we probably have wolves in our backyard. And if we don’t, they’ll be here in a year or three.

    Go read “Wolf Wars” in the the National Geographic. It’s free. Then tell me how you’d feel with a few packs in your backyard. Are you all warm and comfy? Here, little doggie . . .

    So I’m thinking that when the girls or I go hiking, which we do all the time, we need to carry more than a walking stick. More than a paintball gun used to scare the deer out of our garden. I know that even with all the packs shown above, I haven’t heard about wolves attacking humans, but is it wise to assume they just freak out when they see humans and all run away–“that’s a eight-year-old human girl, she will make me wear the cone of shame. I do not like the cone of shame.”

    Or will it be, “Hum, possible lunch over there, let’s check it out. Ooh, look at the fat one. I bet he’s tasty.”

    What do you think?

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  • CONduit, Salt Lake City, Science Fiction and Fantasy

    Just a reminder. The CONduit convention begins on Friday. I’ll be holding a 2-hour workshop on Saturday titled “The 3 Things You Must Learn to Write Killer Stories” from 2 PM – 4 PM.

    The rest of the day on Saturday is loaded with a number of great panels featuring authors such as:

    • Michael Stackpole
    • Brandon Sanderson
    • L.E. Modesitt Jr.
    • Mette Harrison
    • Eric James Stone
    • James Dashner
    • Julie Wright
    • Dan Wells
    • Ann Chamberlin
    • And many more 

    If you look at the schedule, you’ll see sessions on

    • making your own chain mail
    • iron-age celts
    • drawing monsters
    • writing
    • jewelry making
    • filking, which is just live music, which you can join in on 
    • Ice cream social
    • A masquerade
    • And, for those of you who have been dying to learn, belly dancing (I don’t need to go to that one: my belly dances all by itself already, alas)  

    You authors, remember there’s a writers/publishers/editors social Friday night at 10 PM at the hotel bar.

    Hope to see you there!

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  • NEWS: The Man is going all indie for the next little while

    After discussions with my agent and a few others, I’ve decided NOT to shop BAD PENNY to New York publishers. In fact, I’ve decided I’m not going to be shopping anything to NY for the next 12 – 18 months.

    My agent was certainly willing to take the property out, but given the average expected advance for thrillers ($15-20k per book; maybe up to $100k for three books) and the terms that NY currently wants, I thought that it might be worth it to try to build something on my own.

    I do not hold the illusions some do about indie publishing (I probably hold others). For example, I know quite a few authors who have published indie and are selling very low numbers each month–single digits and teens. Of course, I know others, a smaller portion, who are selling just fine.

    But then what’s the bar? How many copies do I have to sell on my own over a three to five year period to match what NY can do for me via brick and mortar?

    Let’s look at that from a revenue and a unit perspective.

    The average advance for a fantasy, according to Tobias Buckell’s survey, is about $7,000 for a new author. $12,000 for an established author. We saw the numbers I gathered for thrillers above.

    So lets see how many copies I’d have to sell indie style to earn as much as I’d get in an advance from New York.  Why not select a higher number? Well, my understanding is that most books don’t earn out their advance. That doesn’t mean the publisher doesn’t make money; just that a publisher’s profit isn’t dependent on an author earning out.

    So what are the numbers? Well, here are the numbers for NY. Down the first column you’ll see the different formats. Across the rows you’ll see how many units I’d have to sell to make the advance specified at the top. And how many units I’d have to sell if I wanted to spread the total over three years.

    IndieNYComparisonNYNumbers

    Okay, and here’s what I’d have to sell if I went indie to make the same numbers. I put in the trade paperback format for both 600 and 400 pages because that’s about how big SERVANT and BAD PENNY are going to be.

    IndieNYComparisonIndieNumbers

     

    What does this tell me?

    It tells me I have to sell a heck of a lot more units with NY at a much higher price than I do indie.  It tells me that a $5,000 advance is not even close to being worth the control I lose with NY.  And if it’s true that most books don’t earn out, then it tells me the units that are being sold by NY on the average book.

    Back in 2009 I shared this: How Many Copies Do Average Authors Sell? This was from an editor at Tor Books. Seems like my numbers are in the ball park.

    It’s true that NY could get me into brick and mortar stores. But if the book gets shelved spine out in the back, how many people will discover it?

    It’s true that NY produces some spectacular hits. I looked at the USA Today bestseller list yesterday and it appears only about 10% of the books there this week are indies. But I can’t bank on becoming a NY wonder. The vast majority of NY published books DON’T make the bestseller lists.

    Finally, even if I sold BAD PENNY today, it still wouldn’t hit shelves for probably 12-18 months from now. And then it would only stay on the shelves for 12-18 weeks. Going indie, I will have it up by September. And it will stay. For years and years and years.

    There’s no guarantee of success either way. But the indie numbers look good to me. We’ll see how it goes.

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