NEWS: The Man is going all indie for the next little while

After discussions with my agent and a few others, I’ve decided NOT to shop BAD PENNY to New York publishers. In fact, I’ve decided I’m not going to be shopping anything to NY for the next 12 – 18 months.

My agent was certainly willing to take the property out, but given the average expected advance for thrillers ($15-20k per book; maybe up to $100k for three books) and the terms that NY currently wants, I thought that it might be worth it to try to build something on my own.

I do not hold the illusions some do about indie publishing (I probably hold others). For example, I know quite a few authors who have published indie and are selling very low numbers each month–single digits and teens. Of course, I know others, a smaller portion, who are selling just fine.

But then what’s the bar? How many copies do I have to sell on my own over a three to five year period to match what NY can do for me via brick and mortar?

Let’s look at that from a revenue and a unit perspective.

The average advance for a fantasy, according to Tobias Buckell’s survey, is about $7,000 for a new author. $12,000 for an established author. We saw the numbers I gathered for thrillers above.

So lets see how many copies I’d have to sell indie style to earn as much as I’d get in an advance from New York.  Why not select a higher number? Well, my understanding is that most books don’t earn out their advance. That doesn’t mean the publisher doesn’t make money; just that a publisher’s profit isn’t dependent on an author earning out.

So what are the numbers? Well, here are the numbers for NY. Down the first column you’ll see the different formats. Across the rows you’ll see how many units I’d have to sell to make the advance specified at the top. And how many units I’d have to sell if I wanted to spread the total over three years.

IndieNYComparisonNYNumbers

Okay, and here’s what I’d have to sell if I went indie to make the same numbers. I put in the trade paperback format for both 600 and 400 pages because that’s about how big SERVANT and BAD PENNY are going to be.

IndieNYComparisonIndieNumbers

 

What does this tell me?

It tells me I have to sell a heck of a lot more units with NY at a much higher price than I do indie.  It tells me that a $5,000 advance is not even close to being worth the control I lose with NY.  And if it’s true that most books don’t earn out, then it tells me the units that are being sold by NY on the average book.

Back in 2009 I shared this: How Many Copies Do Average Authors Sell? This was from an editor at Tor Books. Seems like my numbers are in the ball park.

It’s true that NY could get me into brick and mortar stores. But if the book gets shelved spine out in the back, how many people will discover it?

It’s true that NY produces some spectacular hits. I looked at the USA Today bestseller list yesterday and it appears only about 10% of the books there this week are indies. But I can’t bank on becoming a NY wonder. The vast majority of NY published books DON’T make the bestseller lists.

Finally, even if I sold BAD PENNY today, it still wouldn’t hit shelves for probably 12-18 months from now. And then it would only stay on the shelves for 12-18 weeks. Going indie, I will have it up by September. And it will stay. For years and years and years.

There’s no guarantee of success either way. But the indie numbers look good to me. We’ll see how it goes.

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  • Writing update: Curse Draft 3 FINISHED, The Book Academy

    Fanfare!

    Draft 3 of Curse of a Dark God is finished.

    Finished!

    Finished!

     

    FIIIIINIIIIIIISHED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    245,000 words. 873 manuscript pages.

    That’s a big book. SERVANT was only 170,000. A “normal” novel is somewhere around 90,000 – 120,000 words. I just emailed it to my agent with a huge sigh of relief. And a hope that the editoral sword of Damocles has been lifted a bit. I’m sure my editor will want some changes–most certainly fewer words–but hopefully this is a draft we can agree on and, therefore, set a release date.

    I want to thank the following folks for reading the opening and giving me their feedback. I’ll be incorporating their comments, along with those of my beta readers, agent, and editors, in my review for the edits I’ll make to draft 4. Some of the comments, actually, made it into draft 3.

    • Adam Teachout
    • Alexis Cooper
    • Alex Lamborn
    • Amy Lamborn
    • Cameron Wilson
    • Darren Eggett
    • David C. Walton
    • David West
    • Eric Allen
    • Garrett Winn
    • Hyrum Grissom
    • Justin Fisher
    • Krista Hoeppner Leahy
    • Laurel Amberdine
    • Lindsey Tolis
    • Lynette Wood
    • Martin Cahill
    • Melanie Goldmund
    • Merrill Nielson
    • Mette Ivie Harrison
    • Nick Dianatkhah
    • Rachel Gao 
    • Robert Thompson
    • Steve Diamond
    • Wesley Amodt

    Again, all of you listed above–THANK YOU SO VERY MUCH FOR READING AND RESPONDING!! We luvs you, Precious. And if I missed anyone, please send me an email smack. Your name needs to be there. I’ll move it over into the fiction section later.

    For those who missed out, I’m planning on posting the beginning of Dark God’s Glory for review as well. Although I don’t know how it’s going to work out with pub dates. We’ll have to see.  

    By the way, here’s the opening chapter as it now stands. It may very well change.

    1.   The Harvester

    Berosus saw the girl the first day he arrived on the shores of the New Lands. She was a beautiful Koramite mix. Dark hair. Clear skin the color of caramel. A full set of teeth. But it was her stunning jade eyes that decided him. That and the playful but firm way she handled the sailors wanting more than just a few pints of her grog. He found lodging in a barn that night then ordered three of his men to kidnap her.

    When the time was right, they brought her to him up on the hill. It was in the afternoon of the sixth day. The sun shone brightly in the blue autumn sky. The breeze rustled through the grass and trees. He untied the bonds around her wrists and told her to sit down. He said, “Some of the spark’s gone out of your eyes.”

    She said, “Six days in a hole will do that to you.”

    He gave her credit. She was scared and hiding it very well. He said, “You’re destined for great things.”

    She looked at the tattoos on his wrists, which would tell her nothing, and said, “I’ve a father to tend to, and three brothers.”

    He said, “What’s your name?”

    “Jade.”

    “Of course. Well, Jade. You’re good stock.” He motioned at her. “Wide hips, good bone structure. You would have born many fine children and increased the Mother’s herd. But there’s a higher purpose.”

    She said, “You’re one of those Shimites, aren’t you. One of his sleth.”

    “Ho,” he laughed. “No, lovely. Shim is a nothing. A gnat. A beetle. No, I am a Seeker. A servant of the Sublime. And you will serve me. Does that please you?”

    “You’re not marked.”

    “No, Seekers never are. We can’t announce our coming, now, can we?”

    She swallowed. “They say Shim’s brought on a curse.”

    “That he has,” Berosus replied. “And you’re going to help remove it.” He pulled the rough, black gloryhorn from its pouch. “Do you know what this is?”

    “Not a simple horn,” she said, “or you wouldn’t have asked.”

    She was smart. Brave. Oh, but he liked this one. He had indeed chosen well. “No, not a mere horn. It’s a weave. And like all weaves it needs soul to bring it to life. This one needs a lot of soul.”

    He saw she understood what that meant, for the last of her feisty spirit drained away. She glanced down the hill. She was going to run; he could see it in her eyes. He gave her credit again. She was real quality. By this point many females would have been in a panic, in tears or begging him for mercy. But this one still had her wits.

    He snatched her by the wrist. “Don’t spoil it. You’ll be remembered. I will remember you, this hill, the smell of the autumn leaves, and your eyes under the blue sky.”

    She tried to wrench her arm free, but Berosus had an iron grip. Her tattoo marked her as property of the Mother and gave him access. He pushed through the barriers of her flesh to the soul within and felt her scream.

    #

    When Berosus finished, the husk of Jade’s body stared past him at the trees. Her body and the remnant soul which lingered there might live on for a few days, maybe even a few weeks, but there was no point in allowing that to occur. It would seek the familiar; it would walk back to her home, go about its old habits. Maybe it would sit in a favorite chair, maybe eat a piece of bread or go through the motions of drawing water. But it wouldn’t respond to the conversations of her loved ones or their later pleadings. All this would only raise questions, and questions at this point would not be useful. So Berosus killed the body with a sharp twist to the neck and laid it down upon the dried autumn grass at his feet.

    The captain of Berosus’ dreadmen had brought a small meal. Berosus picked up a salted herring that lay in the cloth the captain had spread upon the grass and took a bite. “Life is meant to be lived consciously,” Berosus said, “deliberately.”

    “Yes, Bright One,” the dreadmen said.

    With his free hand, Berosus ran a handful of the female’s luxurious dark hair through his fingers. He traced her brow and the ridge of her cheek bone, traced the delicate curve of her lips. She was so beautiful in her repose. As graceful and sensuous as the rich petals of an iris.

    “Every day a banquet is spread, Captain. And if you’re not careful, you’ll miss it.” Berosus disdained the Divines who sent others to do their work. Life was full of gifts, full of scenes such as these. And every day they missed it.

    He took another bite of herring.

    The captain said, “We have a report, Bright One.”

    Berosus ignored him. The scene was perfect. The breeze blew gentle waves through the dry meadow grass about Jade. The heads of the grass nodded to and fro, as if reaching out to touch her.

    He contemplated her a moment more then picked up the leather pouch that held the rough, black gloryhorn where the essential parts of the girl’s soul still lived on and put the strap over his neck.

    The gloryhorn was the weave he would use to harvest the fruit of this land. He’d needed a soul to quicken it. He could have used anyone’s soul, but it pleased him to think of Jade in there, for every time he saw the horn, he would also think of her, this hill, and the grass rippling in the breeze. He would think of how poignant it was for something of such beauty to bring forth such destruction.

    He finished the herring and sucked his two fingers clean. In the distance, the towers of Shim’s fortress rose above the trees. “What is the report?”

    “The Mungonite priest has been spotted.”

    Berosus nodded. “Good. We need to find him before he talks.”

    “I’ve already dispatched men.”

    Berosus looked out at Shim’s fortress. He’d been watching Shim’s army for the past six days, and his orders were to harvest every last one of them.

    It was clear to him this army was sleth. They were using weaves of might, but none were in the pattern of any of the houses of Kains he knew. There were no Guardian Divines, no tethered skir, no Fire sacrifices. There simply were no signs that would indicate an enemy Mother was here, claiming this human herd. But there was the sleth Argoth and his Grove.

    When Berosus had received his orders, he’d been informed by the glorious Mother of Mokad herself that this nest of sleth had killed two Divines and perhaps even one of her sisters. He saw now they were starting to build an army of dreadmen. It was all very impressive for sleth. But their time was at an end.

    He looked down upon the body of Jade. She would have been harvested anyway. This outbreak of slethery had to be stopped before it grew too large. A small sleth nest could be useful at times in managing the herd or in attacking another Mother’s holdings. But an army of them would only cause problems. And you couldn’t just kill the leaders. Ideas and knowledge spread like disease. In this situation, it was best to simply destroy them all. 

    Berosus smoothed one side of his long blond moustache and then the other. About him in the woods, his dreadmen kept watch. He’d received message via the weave that bound his chief general to him that the ships with the troops and the other Divines were making good progress. They expected to arrive in just a few days, which gave him just enought time to put himself in place.

    In the distance, banners and wreaths were being hung at the fortress. He thought it fitting: on the morrow, the inhabitants of this land would celebrate the good gifts of the harvest with their annual apple dance feast. In truth, they were only fattening themselves for the real harvest.

    Harvesting humans was essentially the same as harvesting any animal. You gathered them together. Then you killed them. Like many social animals, humans banded together when under threat. Provide the right motivation, and the herd would gather itself.

    “Captain,” he said. “Tomorrow evening at the feast, we set things in motion. You will send in someone with poison. Let him clearly demonstrate our intent.”

    “It will be done, Bright One.”

    Berosus took in a great breath of the sweet air. The day was brisk, the sky sunny and clear. He hoped the sunshine held. It was such fine weather for slaughter.

    Edit. See, it’s already changed. I had two versions when I posted this blog. I let Nellie read both. And she reports that this one created much more interest (curiosity, in this case) much faster. Sigh. It’s a good thing I’m taking a break.

    1.   The Harvester

    The young girl was beautiful. Dark hair. Stunning jade eyes. Clear skin the color of caramel. But her body was merely a husk now because Berosus had removed the vast majority of her soul.

    The husk of her body and the remnant soul which lingered there might live on for a few days, maybe even a few weeks, but there was no point in allowing that to occur. The body would seek the familiar; it would walk back to its home, go about its old habits. Maybe it would sit in a favorite chair, maybe eat a piece of bread or go through the motions of drawing water. But it wouldn’t respond to the conversations of her loved ones or their later pleadings. All this would only raise questions, and questions at this point would be inconvenient. So Berosus killed the girl’s body with a sharp twist to the neck and laid it down upon the dried autumn grass at his feet.

    The captain of Berosus’ dreadmen had brought a small meal. Berosus picked up a salted herring that lay in the cloth the captain had spread upon the grass and took a bite. “Life is meant to be lived consciously,” Berosus said, “deliberately.”

    “Yes, Bright One,” the dreadmen said.

    With his free hand, Berosus ran a handful of the female’s luxurious dark hair through his fingers. He traced her brow and the ridge of her cheek bone, traced the delicate curve of her lips. She was so beautiful in her repose. As graceful and sensuous as the rich petals of an iris.

    “Every day a banquet is spread, Captain. And if you’re not careful, you’ll miss it.” Berosus disdained the Divines who sent others to do their work. Life was full of gifts, full of scenes such as these. And every day they missed it.

    He took another bite of herring.

    The captain said, “We have a report, Bright One.”

    Berosus ignored him. The scene was perfect. The breeze blew gentle waves through the dry meadow grass about Jade. The heads of the grass nodded to and fro, as if reaching out to touch her.

    He contemplated her a moment more then picked up the leather pouch that held the rough, black gloryhorn where the essential parts of the girl’s soul still lived on and put the strap over his neck.

    The gloryhorn was the weave he would use to harvest the fruit of this land. He’d needed a soul to quicken it. He could have used anyone’s soul, but it pleased him to think of Jade in there, for every time he saw the horn, he would also think of her, this hill, and the grass rippling in the breeze. He would think of how poignant it was for something of such beauty to bring forth such destruction.

    He finished the herring and sucked his two fingers clean. In the distance, the towers of Shim’s fortress rose above the trees. “What is the report?”

    “The Mungonite priest has been spotted.”

    Berosus nodded. “Good. We need to find him before he talks.”

    “I’ve already dispatched men.”

    Berosus looked out at Shim’s fortress. He’d been watching Shim’s army for the past six days, and his orders were to harvest every last one of them.

    It was clear to him this army was sleth. They were using weaves of might, but none were in the pattern of any of the houses of Kains he knew. There were no Guardian Divines, no tethered skir, no Fire sacrifices. There simply were no signs that would indicate an enemy Mother was here, claiming this human herd. But there was the sleth Argoth and his Grove.

    When Berosus had received his orders, he’d been informed by the glorious Mother of Mokad herself that this nest of sleth had killed two Divines and perhaps even one of her sisters. He saw now they were starting to build an army of dreadmen. It was all very impressive for sleth. But their time was at an end.

    He looked down upon the body of Jade. She had solid bone structure, wide hips for bearing children, even teeth. She was good stock. In regular circumstances, she would have grown up to bear many fine children and increase the herd. She would have provided many souls as meat for the Mothers. But she would have been harvested anyway. This outbreak of slethery had to be stopped before it grew too large. A small sleth nest could be useful at times in managing the herd or in attacking another Mother’s holdings. But an army of them would only cause problems. And you couldn’t just kill the leaders. Ideas and knowledge spread like disease. In this situation, it was best to simply destroy them all. 

    Berosus smoothed one side of his long blond moustache and then the other. About him in the woods, his dreadmen kept watch. He’d received message via the weave that bound his chief general to him that the ships with the troops and the other Divines were making good progress. They expected to arrive in just a few days, which gave him just enought time to put himself in place.

    In the distance, banners and wreaths were being hung at the fortress. He thought it fitting: on the morrow, the inhabitants of this land would celebrate the good gifts of the harvest with their annual apple dance feast. In truth, they were only fattening themselves for the real harvest.

    Harvesting humans was essentially the same as harvesting any animal. You gathered them together. Then you killed them. Like many social animals, humans banded together when under threat. Provide the right motivation, and the herd would gather itself.

    “Captain,” he said. “Tomorrow evening at the feast, we set things in motion. You will send in someone with poison. Let him clearly demonstrate our intent.”

    “It will be done, Bright One.”

    Berosus took in a great breath of the sweet air. The day was brisk, the sky sunny and clear. He hoped the sunshine held. It was such fine weather for slaughter.

    ***

    In other news, I was invited to present at The Book Academy conference that will be held at UVU in Orem, UT on Thursday, September 30th. It looks like it’s going to be a great time.

    Date & Time Event Type Area Notes
    Thursday, September 30 Writers conference Orem, UT The Book Academy is a one-day conference designed to give authors, aspiring authors, and avid readers the opportunity to learn more about writing, the publishing industry, and the books they love while networking with other authors, publishing professionals, and book lovers. Classes will be taught by successful authors and publishing professionals on writing basics, publishing, marketing, book clubs, and more.*This year it will be hosted by Utah Valley University. The theme is “Power up your writing.” I’ll be teaching a one-hour class on how to make a good idea great. More details to come.
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  • This pass through CURSE is done!

    Oh, this feels soooooooo good. Here are the stats.

    • 58 chapters
    • 205,000 words
    • I received the green light midway through April. Finished 27 weeks later.
    • Looking at my time records, it took me a total of 345 hours to finish this draft.  And the lion’s share was new stuff.  This took less time than it normally does for me, but it’s the freaking forth time through and I know the world and characters.
    • I averaged about 13 hours per week. It still bothers me I couldn’t get that closer to 20 hours.
    • This translates to a rate of about 600 words per hour, and that’s with daily edits, thinking, backtracks.  I’m not going to win any speed contest, but at least I’m consistent.

    Of course, it took me an additional 105 hours of work to finally get an outline we could agree on. If I add that, it brings my stats down a bit. But, overall, I’m pleased. For those who want to read an excellent article on writing productivity, look at Kevin J. Anderson’s “The Mathematics of Productivity.”

    Now I need to take the next two weeks to cut about 10%. And fix the weather stripping on our French doors to keep the hordes of  #@!$%! spiders from coming in. Wish me luck.

    Note: it bugs me my bullets don’t show up. Some day I’m going to get someone to fix the stylesheet on this website.

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  • Map for Servant of a Dark God by Isaac Stewart

    Check it out.  “The Clan Lands of Whitecliff” by Isaac Stewart. I think he’s done a great job.  Here’s the full PDF. BTW, this is not the map that will appear in the book. That one’s being done by another artist selected by Tor. This is one I commissioned when I got my book contract.

    sodg_map_old_v5_isaacstewart

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  • Curse edit finished & other news

    A couple of quick updates.

    I just finished the edit of CURSE. I now have 697 pages all marked in red. Most of the revisions are small things. But there are some larger scene level edits. I hope to finish these in the next few weeks. Then we do the copy edit, print the proof, do the proof edit, and then at long last this baby will be available for readers. We’re so very close.

    In other news, Larry Correia did a book bomb for BAD PENNY yesterday. At 6:30 a.m. this morning it was ranked number 457 at Amazon. It was the #3 book in the Thriller>Military category and #50 in the Thriller>Suspense. Hundreds of folks purchased the book. A couple even finished and began posting glowing reviews on Amazon and Larry’s site. I can’t tell you how excited I am to get the story into the hands of new readers. Both series are now launched.

    Both books are available at:

    • Amazon (trade paperback and ebook)
    • Barnes&Noble (ebook)
    • Kobo (ebook)
    • Diesel (ebook)

    I’m still working with the blasted Smashwords to get it up at iTunes and the Sony eReader store. I’ve been working since the middle of December on that. I’m going to give them one more shot, and then we’ll have to figure something else out. Those of you wanting to get it on iTunes, I hope to have it resolved by this time next week. Thank you so much for your extreme patience.

     

     

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  • |

    LTUE schedule posted

    ltuelogoLTUE has posted its schedule for the upcoming conference Thursday – Saturady, Feb 12-14. I’m, of course, stoked to present and participate on the panels. But I’m also looking forward to attending some of the sessions.

    Look at this one: How a Military Unit Works in Real Life: Zachary Hill, Brook West, Robert J Defendi, C. R. Asay, Mike Kupari (m)

    Or this one: All about armor: Zachary Hill, J. D. Raisor, Kay Mildenhall, Charles B. Stanford (m)

    Or what about this one: Law Enforcement: James Ganiere, Zach Hill, Robin Ambrose (m), which conflicts with one of mine, dang it!

    Or this: Making Creatures Realistic to their Environment: Keliana Tayler, Brian Hailes, Jessica Douglas, Bryan Beus (m)

    This: Applied Biotechnology: Derrick William Dalton, Mikki Kells, Charlie Pulsipher, Chersti Nieveen, Ali Cross (m)

    This: How to Create a Language: Maxwell Alexander Drake, Dirk Elzinga, Valerie Mechling, Samuel Stubbs, Bryce Moore (m)

    And tons of others.

    Oh, and what about the keynote address on Saturday by Toni Weisskopf?

    It’s going to be a great conference. I’ll be giving these presentations.

    • How to Build an Action Plot. In this one, Larry Correia and I team up to share a model of plotting that should make developing your action story much easier. Attendees will be able to use the methods on a novel idea Larry, Joe (Larry’s son), and I came up with called Mech Runners. Basically, Larry turned to Joe and said, “What’s awesome?” Joe said, “Giant robots, bandits, and murderers.” We took it from there.
    • How to Build a Romance Subplot. In this one, I team up with romance author LL Muir to share a model of plotting that should make developing your romance plot or subplot much easier. Attendees will be able to use the methods on a story idea Lesli and I came up based on The Hobbit. It’s called My Precious.
    • Tapping into the Power of the Story Setup. The story setup is a fabulous tool that’s not only helped me drastically cut down the time it takes me to develop my ideas, but it has also helped me develop better ideas. In this presentation, I will explain what the story setup is and how you can use it to help you nail your novel.

    I’ll also be moderating or participating on these panels:

    • The Hero’s Journey & the Virgin’s Promise: Patterns and Archetypes for Better Characters:Michaelbrent Collings, Tracy Hickman, Blake Cassleman, Renee Collins, John D. Brown (m). Did I tell you I think the hero’s journey is stupid? This ought to be a fun one.
    • Action Sequences: John D. Brown, D. J. Butler, Peter Orullian, Adrienne Monson, M. Todd Gallowglas (m)
    • Self-Publishing Pros And Cons: Jared Abram Barneck, John D. Brown, Mikki Kells, Joe Vasicek (m)

    Hope to see you there!

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11 Comments

  1. I say bravo! I’m seeing more and more traditionally published authors starting to think this way. It just makes sense. One thing I appreciate about your approach is the way you rely on the numbers instead of just rumor and gut feeling. It’s one thing that keeps me coming back to your blog. Let us know how it turns out. Good luck!

  2. As a fan,whatever it takes to get the content to me faster. That is what I support. If it also earns you more money, and I pay less money… win win.

  3. Good for you, John! I’ve had 11 books published, four of them indie, and I’m making about the same amount of money from my four indie books as I’ve made from my seven traditionally published books. Two of my traditionally published books are now out of print and I will never see another penny out of them. But while my four self-published eBooks are not bestsellers, they provide me with a predictable monthly income that may never end. There are pros and cons to each approach, but I applaud anyone who takes matters into his or her own hands and self-publishes. I wish you great success!

  4. Love it! I’ll happily make sure that you get my money for anything you write, so start publishing those grocery lists, Mr.!

  5. Congrats, my brother! I’ll be passing you, going the other direction, giving you a huge high five. And if you ever need a book-tour partner and Larry isn’t available(or you don’t want to kill your gas mileage by hauling him along), give me a call.

  6. He IS a lug (grin)

    Bryce, let’s see. Here’s one for free: Silk almond milk, avocado, mushroom. Apples, bananas, and a kitchen broom. The yogurt of Greeks, the peanuts of Sam, and a package of bacon to fry in a pan.

    Thank you, thank you. I know. It’s amazing, isn’t it. I almost want to cry.

  7. John,

    Just catching up on blog posts after returning from attending a two week intensive novel writing workshop. This is a very timely post! The assistant instructor at the workshop is an indie author and we had a number of conversations about indie vs. traditional. I’m working on two novel projects and these numbers are very instructive.

    Please keep us posted! Looking forward to seeing Bad Penny on Amazon!

Comments are closed.