Is Amazon’s game totalitarianism?

nazi_flagAmazatzi?

Franklin Foer and Scott Turow recently made comments which suggest Amazon is in the process of ushering in a totalitarian book economy.

Is Bezos, as Hitler was in the 1930s, biding his time, playing a long game, one that will lull the masses into a false sense of bookish security? Are we appeasing him, letting him take over the continent bit by bit? Is the blitzkrieg less than a decade away?

If you listened to a recent Intelligence2 debate, you would have heard Foer-Turow claim that, yes, that’s exactly where we are headed. On the other side of the debate were Joe Konrath and Matthew Yglesais, arguing that Amazon is the reader’s friend.

Konrath and Yglesais made some good points. But they left the central Foer-Turow argument standing like a citadel. It was left standing because much of what they had to say, as good as it was, frittered around the edges or went off into beer land.

But the Foer-Turow argument is not a citadel. It’s a house of crackers.

Here’s why: publishers, authors, readers, and entrepreneurs all have brains. And somehow, in their threat assessment, Foer-Turow forgot that.

How could they forget something so fundamental?

Well, their argument went like this.

  1. Amazon right now provides an amazing service that’s far and above anything any other bookseller currently provides. They have made more books more accessible to more readers than anyone else ever in history. Readers, of course, love this. But this is a bad thing.
  2. It’s bad because Amazon is becoming a monopoly–it already has 41% of all new book and 67% of all e-book sales, and in many divisions of those markets it has even more.
  3. If Amazon were an enlightened ruler like Aslan, okay. But Amazon is a business, and as a business it only cares about its profits. And the way to make profits is buy low and sell high. So when Amazon finishes consolidating its hold on the market, it will force publishers and authors to take less of the pie.
  4. In fact, Foer-Turow claim Amazon wants to not just reduce the share of the pie publishers get, it wants to kill off the publishers and take their share of the book pie completely. In addition to being very poor manners, this is bad for three other reasons.
  5. First, authors of non-fiction books that take a long time to research will never be able to get the money they need to do that research. Publishers are the only ones who can give them that money, which they do in the form of an advance.
  6. Second, few authors of fiction will be able to afford good editing, marketing, and book design, and so the many voices that could have been heard will be stifled, or never rise out of the crap to their true potential.
  7. Third, and this is the nefarious Nazi part, if Amazon is the only place you see books, they can control which books you see, which means they will exert enormous control over our culture because they will be able to suppress some books, and therefore the ideas in those books, and promote others. Foer-Turow claim Amazon has already done this.
  8. Finally, because it’s a business and has a goal of profit, when Amazon covers the land, it will probably eventually charge readers more. In fact, it may charge them a lot more. It can’t avoid it; it’s a business.

So Amazon is taking over more and more book territory. When it’s taken over enough territory to be unassailable, it will then proceed to ruin our culture because its model of book selling will suppress quality non-fiction and fiction alike. And then it will gouge readers.

Sounds depressing.

Sounds like Orwell’s 1984 or global warming.

The only problem is that there is a big honking flaw in all of that.

Like BIG and HONKING.

And I’m not talking about the issues like the idea that publisher advances are the only way non-fiction writers can be funded, or that publishers are the only way the vast majority of fiction writers can obtain quality book covers, marketing, and editing. Or that one internet site has the power to put a choke hold on ideas.

No, it’s about something else.

You need to know I’m not an Amazon groupie. Nor am I a hater of publishers. I am a businessman. I’m looking for good partners. And I recently wrote a post pointing out that it’s delusional for authors to think Amazon is their BFF with pinky rings. They are just, at the moment, a great indie partner. But their interests and mine are not perfectly aligned. Our love is definitely not written in the stars.

So I’m not here to stand up for Amazon. I’m here to say that the scenario Foer-Turow paint is fantasy.

Why?

Because they’ve set up a chess board and assumed that Amazon is the only player.

Monopoly

How does a monopoly stay a monopoly?

The government either legislates it. Or the company maintains their position by force. Or they own something that nobody else can get. Or the barriers to entering that market are so high nobody can get in to play. In all these scenarios, if people want the goods, they are forced to interact with the monopolies.

But has the government given Amazon a legal monopoly?

Um, nope. No charters here to be the only fur trappers in the West.

Does Amazon have an army of thugs who are going to beat people up and make them join Amazon Prime?

No. Well, maybe that’s what the drones are for, but they haven’t rolled them out yet.

Do they own something nobody else can get, like a piece of land? Are they sitting on the world’s largest reserves of cheap book oil?

Nope. They’ve got a great website and excellent logistics. But websites really aren’t that hard. And if we’re talking ebooks, you don’t need logistics.

What about the barriers to entry?

The big advantage Amazon has is that they usually have the lowest book prices around, the biggest selection (you can find almost any book you want there in any format it’s available in), and are incredibly convenient, providing samples, reviews, recommendations, and easy checkout. And they have the crowds.

It’s hard to get crowds. It’s hard to get all that content. It’s hard to beat their prices. Those are some dang good barriers that keep new guys out.

And Foer-Turow figured that’s all set. In stone.

Human Beings

But what happens if publishers have brains and are actually headed up by, like, real humans who aren’t just going to roll over and play dead? What would such folks do should Amazon keep killing off more and more of them and stealing their pie?

Amazon doesn’t own the rights to their books. As soon as any contract ends, publishers could simply say, we’re done. Our books will no longer appear in your store. If you’re faced with extinction or something else, what do humans normally do?

Amazon’s advantage is being the everything store. You can find every book imaginable there. So what happens when shoppers go there and can’t find the most popular books of our time? How long do they stick with Amazon when the shelves are empty? Anyone think about why Amazon kept selling Hachette books even when they were having contract disputes?

What happens if indie authors have brains and are real humans who aren’t going to roll over and play dead either? What would such folks do should Amazon keep squeezing more and more profits out of them? Could such folks pull their books (like many bestselling indies have from Kindle Unlimited), form a co-op, and create their own site?

What if everyone was talking about this awesome book that was all the rage, but it wasn’t stocked by Amazon? It was stocked on the indie site, and Apple, and all the others. How would that affect shoppers?

What happens if there are real human entrepreneurs out there or real humans leading other businesses, and they were all wanting to make a buck, and they see Amazon charging readers a ton and swimming in easy dollars? What happens when they see those tempting profits?

Do you think they might offer disgruntled publishers and authors better terms? Do you think they might give better deals to price-gouged readers?

So is Amazon going to kill publishers? Only if the humans have left the building.

Will they kill authors? Only if authors let them.

Will they gouge readers? Not when other folks see there’s money to be made by undercutting them.

Amazon is playing in a global market with the likes of Alibaba, Google, Apple, Walmart, etc. Amazon is playing in an internet economy where college students can come up with an idea and become billionaires. Equally important, Amazon owns nothing that somebody else can’t recreate. They have no legal monopoly. They have no army of thugs. What they have is a lot of content, a well-known URL, logistics for the hard copies, and good prices.

But what they do not have is a marketplace where everyone else involved is absent a brain.

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  • Zing Generators

    Where do you get your ideas? How do you turn them into story?

    Those are fabulous questions. The answer is a bit longer than I have time for today. But I have posted my list of idea generation methods, structured ways of performing creative Q&A.

    These have been collected over the years from a number of sources and are now passed on to you, faithful reader. Use them, cherish them, and, if you wish, start an order of crazed monks to preserve the fabulous secrets.

    John Browns’s Idea Generation Method List

    Enjoy!

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    Generating Story 1: Can You Create a Redneck Crapper?

    Bugatti Veyron Super Sports $2,400,000

    Almost everyone reading this knows what they like in a car. We know what we want a car to do. We can talk about acceleration, voom-voom styling, and handling. Some of us could talk about how engines and transmissions and tires all work together to create those things. We could get really technical.

    But how many of us could then go manufacture a tire? Or the paint we’re going to put on the car? How about a windshield?

    No?

    Well, what about one little bolt? Just a little bolt. Can you do it?

    There’s a difference between knowing what a thing is supposed to do, how it works, and actually building it. A lot of people can talk about the first two topics and have no idea at all about the third.

    It’s the same with stories.

    There are three things we have to learn to write killer stories.

    1. What a story is supposed to do.
    2. How the 5 parts of story—character, setting, problem, plot, and text–do that
    3. How to come up with and develop a story idea in the first place

    We authors talk a lot about the second thing. You have books and blogs galore on dialogue, plot, characters, structure, grammar, world-building, setting—you name it. Heck, the big series I wrote last year about the key conditions for reader suspense was all about how story works.

    Some of us talk about the first thing. And really there’s no point in blathering on about the how-to’s if we don’t know the what-for’s, which is why I tried to highlight one of the core what-for’s in my series on suspense.

    But as important as those two things are, none of it matters if we don’t know how to put it to use. We’re not reviewers or editors. We’re creators. We’re writers—the ones that invent the story in the first place. And let me tell you, knowing how a story works and how to invent one are two very different things.  

    I didn’t know the principles of invention when I was first starting out. And that gap in my knowledge was one of the things that held me back for years. In fact, I almost gave up my dream of writing stories because of it.

    Very early in my attempts to start a career I wrote a story that won an award and $2,000. I was flown out to Cocoa Beach, Florida for a week-long workshop with amazing pros. Was published. And then I went home, finished another story (yea!), and proceeded not be able to finish another thing for five years.

    Five years.

    FIVE. YEARS!

    And I tried.

    After five years of failure you begin to wonder if maybe you didn’t get the wrong memo (what am I doing at this empty warehouse?). Your family begins to wonder that as well. You realize life is short and there are a lot of other things you could be spending your time on. You begin to think that only an idiot would spend more time on this. And you’d probably be right.

    Unless, of course, you realize that what’s keeping you back isn’t a manifestation of cosmic will. Rather, it’s just a lack of understanding.

    That’s what happened in my case. Just a few days before I gave up on all my dreams, the light was turned on for me. I learned some key, but simple, principles of invention that I hadn’t known. You can read the whole story here. After I learned these principles, my production took off like a rocket.

    And so what I want to do in this series is share those principles with you. Hopefully, this will unleash your abilities. You might find a huge audience for your stories. You might find only the family dog will stick around to listen to them. The popularity of your stories is a separate matter. But you can’t even find out how big your audience will be if you don’t know how to finish.

    So let’s start. A lot of people think that creativity is about passion. When they think of creativity, they think of someone like this.

    Look at him. Brushed velvet jacket. Beard. Rakish devil-may-care hair. And that gaze. Look at that gaze! It’s full of passion. It’s coming off him in waves. In fact, we all know his inner world is a vast tempestuous sea of passion that sends ideas crashing in great surges onto the rocky beaches of his soul. And those earthly forces cannot be contained. No, he must write them, write them, write them. That’s the face of a man who will channel fire onto the written page because if he didn’t, he would surely burn.

    Or maybe not.

    Maybe creativity is about being like this guy.

      

    Hello, Malcolm Gladwell. Look at him. There are so many ideas in that great blaze of brains they trip over themselves trying to get out. There are so many they kinked his hair with their electric heat. Oh, fecund mind!

    Or maybe not.

    Maybe creativity is all a function of being blessed.

     

    Or maybe it’s about alcohol (or some other chemical). After all, isn’t that how Ernest Hemmingway did it?

    Booze Makes Ernie Reel Smart

    Or it’s about being mentally unstable.

    Or it’s about having the right personality type. I remember the day of woe when I learned that I was an ENFJ but that the “natural” writers were all ISFPs!

    Alas, me being a blockhead was all scientific

    Or it’s about being eccentric.

    Patrick Rothfuss shows us the key is crazy beardage and an Alice in Wonderland chair

    Or it’s none of that. It’s about being born to it.

    I wrote my first novel when I was six

    Right? All of those things are what creativity is about. And if, as so clearly demonstrated by those pictures, you don’t have passionate hair, well then, forget about it. Except here’s Larry Correia, a New York Times bestseller, who has no passionate hair whatsoever.

    I keep guns in my basement

    Huh?!

    How could that be?

    Here’s how. All those ideas above about creativity–they’re rubbish. Creativity has nothing to do with passion or hair or whether you wear Argyle socks.

    Nothing.

    Let me show you the face of creativity.

    That is Warren Ellis. Warren is my brother-in-law, except when he’s not (do not ask me to explain this). One day our fridge started to drip. The freezer would cycle through its normal thawing, and all the water would drip down into the fridge and soak up our egg cartons and pool in the vegetable crispers. It was a mess.

    We defrosted the freezer we weren’t supposed to ever have to defrost, but the problem persisted. So we called Warren because he fixes things.

    Warren came to our house, looked the fridge over. He declared that the freezer’s drain tube was plugged. We thought up a few ideas for cleaning it out, none of which were any good, then Warren asked if we had an air compressor. We did and hauled it in.

    Warren plugged it in, let it build up the pressure, and then held the compressor nozzle to the bottom end of the tube. The compressed air went in. The obstruction flew up and out and landed on the counter. The obstruction was a fat fly that had crawled in there, gotten stuck, and died.

    We poured a quart of water into that freezer, and it all flowed down into the catch pan at the bottom. Warren fixed our freezer with an air compressor.

    Folks, that is creativity.

    What did Warren have? He didn’t have passionate hair; I can tell you that. No. He had an objective. He knew basically how fridges worked. And he came up with a couple of options to fix the issue.

    Let’s look at another example. Here’s Ed Smylie.

    Ed was like Warren. He ran into some problems. Actually, the astronauts in Apollo 13 ran into some problems. Ed was tasked to help solve them.  One of those problems was the fact that the astronauts were running out of air.

    Ed and the others designed the solution in two days. The ground crew relayed the instructions to the flight crew. The lunar module’s CO2 scrubbers started working again, saving the lives of the three astronauts on board.  Of the experience, Ed said that he knew the problem was solvable when it was confirmed that duct tape was on the spacecraft. “I felt like we were home free”, he said. “One thing a Southern boy will never say is: I don’t think duct tape will fix it.”

    Ed and his crew saved the day. The made a round peg fit into a square hole. How did he come up with such a creative solution?  

    Ed had an objective. He knew how the CO2 scrubbers and the shuttle worked. He knew about duct tape. He came up with options.

    Let’s look at a few more examples of this. I know you’ve seen some of these.

     

    That is creativity. So is this.

     

    And this . . .

     

    And this . . .

    Or this, if you don’t need to go so fast . . .

    Smaller size, for trolling

    And this . . .

    And this, which is officially called a Bumper Dumper . . .

    Do you really want to dig?

     These fine folks had a goal. They knew the basics of how things worked. They came up with some solutions.

    That’s all there is to creativity. Three things. You need to have an idea of what you’re trying to do. You need to have a basic knowledge of how things work. And you have to know how to come up with some solutions to meet your objective. 

    Not so mystical, is it?

    But I can hear some of you complaining. Writing is different. It’s a whole other world. It’s Fiction, which is so significant we must capitalize it. It’s passion. It IS mystical. This is a matter of the heart. It’s not a fridge or space ship or some dumb hotdog roast. You cannot compare these things.

    Except I can because they’re the same. It doesn’t matter if you’re trying to invent a different recipe like the folks at Cook’s Illustrated, or decorate your house, or come up with a way to keep the squirrels out of your bird feeders, or make people weep in a movie theater.

    What I’ve found is that when we have troubles coming up with ideas, we probably don’t know what our objectives are. Or we probably lack some understanding of how fiction works. Or we don’t know the principles of generating options.

    And so we conclude it’s a mystery. It’s arcane lore.

    But it just ain’t so. Can you create a redneck toilet? Then you can write a story.

    Now, it’s true that a lot of people feel their way through this. They don’t know what they’re doing, but they do it. I did that. Remember: I won an award. But then I couldn’t repeat it. Couldn’t find that groove I’d stumbled into.

    I don’t want to stumble around hoping to get lucky. I want to make a living at this. And if I’m going to make a living, I need to produce. Regularly. I can’t be bumbling around, hoping to create something by accident.

    The good news is that we don’t have to create by accident.  We can create on purpose. There are principles to invention. When we learn them, our productivity will shoot through the roof.

    Finding a solution to Apollo 13’s issues might seem impossible to us. But they weren’t impossible to Ed Smylie because Ed had an objective; he knew how things worked up there; and knew how to come up with options.

    My intent is that when you finish this series, you’ll know what Ed Smylie knew, except for stories.

    For more in this series, see How to Get and Develop Story Ideas

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  • Indie Thoughts: It’s a business

    Complaining is not a business strategy ~ Jeff Bezos

    I love that quote.

    That doesn’t mean folks should never express dismay, fear, or frustration. It can sometimes be very helpful to voice it.

    Name it.

    Pin it to the wall.

    And then move forward.

    So Amazon changed how they approach paying authors with Kindle Unlimited (KU). I think the move is fantastic. It rewards value provided to the reader. If you’re in the business of selling value to the reader, that’s a no-brainer.

    I also think this whole KU 2.0 thing illustrates why Author Earnings is so important.

    It reminds us that we are NOT Amazon.

    It reminds us that we are NOT the publishers.

    It reminds us that we are NOT the agents.

    We are a totally different group.

    Amazon is simply a partner. A great partner right now, but they are NOT us.

    Which means we’re responsible to make our own way. How do you do that? The only way I can imagine is to own the idea that you’re a business. And then think like a business.

    How?

    I haven’t run any better way than the lean startup approach.  I’ll be sharing some posts over the next few weeks that explains just what that means.

    Happy 4th of July! May God bless America and the disruptive freedom-loving form of government she introduced.

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  • |

    MountainCon 2008 Killer Story Workshop

    Just got word from the programming organizer that my killer workshop is a go for MountainCon this year. The bonus is that Brandon Sanderson will be teaching it with me. You do NOT want to miss this one.

    WHAT: Writing Killer Stories: This is a hands-on workshop conducted by two professional
    authors (Brandon Sanderson, John Brown).

    When you finish, you will know:

    • The 3 keys to writing killer fiction
    • 4 parts of story & how they relate to the key
    • The creation process
    • 7 principles of creativity
    • Critical guidelines on suspense, plotting, setting, and character building

    WHEN: Saturday, September 20th,  7:30-10:00 PM, Panel Room 1

    WHERE: Davis Convention Center, Layton, Utah

    For more information go to MountainCon.org

    And if you get sick of me, you can listen to Sarah Douglas, the villain from Superman II.  She’ll be there as well with lots of other folks including

    Kevin Sorbo*

    Richard Herd

    Herb Jefferson Jr.

    Sarah Douglas

    Scott Schwartz

    Victor Brandt

    Tad Atkinson

    Mark Goddard*

    Penny Johnson Jerald

    Brandon Sanderson

    Brandon Mull

    David Reddick

    Rebecca Shelley

    JoSelle Vanderhooft

    Paul Genesse

    Sky Conway

    Gralin Jerald

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  • How to get and develop killer story ideas – recording

    The recording of the session with Larry Correia at LTUE is up on YouTube. I really enjoyed this session, and it’s always fun to work with Larry. A few additonal points.

    First, you might think, well, heck, they didn’t finish a story idea. No, we didn’t. The purpose wasn’t to wow the audience. It was to show them the process of generating ideas. But . . . that doesn’t mean we weren’t close.

    The big thing we’re missing from the story at the end is the situation, the problem. So if you want to extend this, ask yourself a question to help you identify that story core. For example, you might say, let’s narrow this down by genre. What genres could we use? Romance, political thriller, crime, horror, humor, scifi, western, paranormal, etc. If we select paranormal thriller, we limit our options (a good thing), and can start to generate ideas around a question like, what’s going on, what’s the problem? Potential answers:

    • There’s some gateway to the spirit world in Wyoming
    • Maybe there’s an oilrigger roughneck involved
    • Maybe something with the drilling disturbed something
    • Maybe a crime has been committed (I know, I know, but what did I say in the video about crap, cliche?)
    • Maybe that Japanese tourist has a way to capture the spirits and use them in some magic. Is he a wizard? Is he there to trap the spirits of the dead to fuel his magic? Did he get a nagging ghost that drives him nuts?
    • Did someone call him in?
    • Or is he possessed? An innocent bystander?
    • Is there some ghost there that knows something about a political figure, some information?  
    • Maybe someone who can project her spirit, has some power, has been kidnapped and is being held in Wyoming. Or tries to make her escape when her kidnappers stop in Rock Springs. And the guy to help her is the Japanese Tourist.
    • Maybe these aren’t ghosts, but some kind of alien symbiote? There was a crash somewhere and the locals were infected?
    • Or should I ask: what could go wrong with ghosts? Or what is the nature of ghost magic?  

    Do you see? If we had more time, we’d have delved more into the situation with creative Q&A. Sooner or later as we generated ideas around character, setting, and problem a story idea would have come to life.

    And (thank you, Mike Barker) here’s a transcript.

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  • How long should my novel be?

    There are two answers to this question.

    1. The story answer by Orson Scott Card, best-selling author

    As long as the story needs, but 75k-100k is when it starts to “feel” like a novel.

    2. The selling it to editors answer by Jenny Rappaport, literary agent

    “Aim for 80k minimum and 120k maximum. Try to hit as close to 100k as possible, but not go over. There are exceptions made for fat fantasies and longer novels.”

    “For YA: 50k minimum. Try not to go over 75k. You can nudge it to 90k if it’s a fantasy. YA is a little more flexible.”

    3. What happened to one author, Brandon Sanderson, when he tried to write to “the market”

    As in stories less than 200,000 words…

    BTW, Brandon is now New York Times best-selling author.

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4 Comments

  1. Good stuff, John. You have expressed much of my own thinking about this, especially the asset part, pointing out that Amazon isn’t sitting on the best oil reserve in the country. They have some servers, some software, and a cool name that everyone can remember. So here comes Nile.com or ColoradoRiver.com or whatever. Look out, Amazon!

  2. This is great, John. I’ve been avoiding the whole ruckus as much as possible, since both sides seem pretty unrealistic to me. Every time someone tries to convince me how evil Amazon is, how they are soon going to take over the world, all I can do is shake my head. A lot of those people do have brains, but in the case, they seem to have forgotten how to think. Sigh.

  3. Right. And I think it’s too bad because so many seem to conflate their interests with the publishers or Amazon. But we have our own very separate interests. These guys are just business partners.

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